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Day 2 : Tuesday 14 February

Team topic: Strategy for flood map production and associated uncertainties (Methodology)

 

 

After some discussions with our two supervisors, we decided to make a brain-storming in order to clarify our subject.

After this debate, the group decided to split the project in two steps. One objective mandatory and the other one optional. Thus the first step of our subject is following the same direction: the calibration of our model of the Var River and the uncertainties associated. However, we now have listed the main categories of uncertainties that can occur and that we will have to take into account:

  • ·         Uncertainties linked to the data collection (flood discharge, topography, soil coverture…)
  • ·         Uncertainties during hydrological modelling
  • ·         Uncertainties during hydraulic modelling

Problems that occurred during data collection cannot be fixed now, but we could still make some research to know to which extent these are reliable data. This is also a problem to reliability on human measures and subjective decisions.

To quantify the uncertainties on our hydrological/hydraulic model, we will have to study the sensitivity of various physical parameters. In other words, the effect of small changes on these parameters to the output of the model and the final flood map.

The second step could be the same kind of study but on another catchment, without the quantify aspect. The main purpose of this could be a comparison between the two cases to find the correlation and the differences between these scenarios.

 


Task

People in charge

Research of existing work regarding uncertainties in hydraulic/hydrology/topography

Remika

Tiphaine

Modelling on MIKE11

Wang

Ruoyan

Myunggyu

MIKE SHE

Alexandre

Amaël

Work on model sensitivity MIKE 21

Jozef

Léonie

Zineb

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